Betting on increased odds. The results!

In our previous post About betting with increased odds we presented with few words what we are aiming to do in this beta study. We also talked about the starting odds, offered by the bookmakers, as well as how the odds are affected by our bets. At the end of the publication, we promised that in a few days we will offer more specific data and results. Now is the time to do that.

As we said earlier, this betting survey is going to use a database that includes more than 50,000 football matches. We will have a deeper look on these matches, their odds and results in a try to find a winning strategy. Let’s start with specific data.

Let’s say we’re looking for matches where we have a 50 percent growth rate. In practice, that means that if we had a match with odds of 1.25, it must be increased at least to 3.3. It looks quite impressive, but it turns out that there are such matches. Only 5 out of 50,000, but it’s still something. Here they are.

Rheinbach vs TV Herkenrath – 1:5, in which the home team’s odds have risen from 1.17 to 12.00
Academia Chisinau vs Ungheni – 0:1, in which the home team’s odds have risen from 1.20 to 3.70
Dalian Boyang vs Yunnan Lijiang – 2:3 in which the odds for the guests jumped from 1.91 to 9.00 – this is the only winning match
Academia Chisinau vs Dinamo-Auto – 1:2, in which the home team’s odds have risen from 1.40 to 5.00
Glacis United vs Europa FC – 1:3, in which the home team’s odds have risen from 1.20 to 6.00.

Five bets and only one winner with 9 units of profit or 4 units of pure profit from our bank. Definitely it seems pointless to wait few months to make only five bets and even if you are profitable, it is only four units from your bank.

But let’s look at matches with a lesser increase of the odds, where the matches will be much more. With an increase of the final coefficient of 40 percent, the matches are 13 in total, including the above five. Of those, only 3 are winners, but even this brings us a net profit. Only 8.25 units from our bank though.

This is certainly better, but it is not enough for us to be able to create a winning betting strategy. At the very least, the efforts made to find such matches with such an increase will not worth the profit.

What is the situation with matches with smaller difference in the odds? That is what we will write about in our next post. Please give us few days to do that.