Betting on increased odds! Is it what we must do?
Statistics in sports betting is vital and everyone who knows a bit from gambling would tell you that. Of course, there are some pure talent people who know sports better than the others and can make profitable betting predictions. However, even they can not have the so needed information about all the teams and players, which in practice means they have to rely on statistics as well, when they make their tips for teams or players they don’t know that much.
In this and the next few posts you are going to read in this site about sports predictions and analysis, we are going to talk most about betting statistics. Here are a few words about what is this about.
Thanks to some time we spent in surveys, we were able to get a soccer database which includes all the starting and ending odds of bet365 for the first half of 2017. With more accurate words, we talk about a bit over than 50,000 football matches from around the world. The basis of the research we have done and what we are going to present here is the dependencies between the starting and ending odds for a given football match.
The idea is quite simple. It is assumed that most of the times, the initial odds, offered by the bookmaker is the betting prediction the bookmaker gives for that particular match. It is more than obviously, the bookmaker’s ability to produce accurate betting predictions is better than ours. This is also shown by the results when we look at a larger array of matches – a cumulative 1X2 bunch of matches always meets their odds. However, what changes the starting odds for a given match are our bets. When most of the bets go in one direction, the bookmaker (in this case bet365) increase the odds for the other. By doing that, the bettors are encouraged to go in the other direction until the odds are balanced once again.
In practice, that means if the initial betting prediction for a given match had a coefficient of 1.5, at some point we can bet on it at 1.8, which is a huge difference. However, this does not change the probability for the match to end in a certain way. This also gives us the opportunity for better profits and more precisely, the opportunity to overcome the bookmaker’s margin to the proposed odds.
In our next post, we would talk with specific data and results. With them, we would try to find a solution to the question – how can this be done in sports betting. How we can find and use the increased odds for football matches.