In our previous two betting articles, namely About Betting Odds and The Results from out betting database, we briefly outlined one of ours betting strategies where we look after matches with increased odds. In the second post we also showed some of the results from this betting strategy. It is important to note that they were profitable, but also with a serious disadvantage that there were too less matches included which practically makes this strategy not worth to follow.
However, what happens, when we look for matches with smaller increase of the odds. This is what we are going to show you in this article.
First, we start with the results of matches with increase of 30% or more for one of the odds. For the first six months of 2017, such matches were played a total of 56 times, of which 17 (or 30 percent of the matches) ended with the victory for the team whose odds were increased. This results in a net profit of 12.86 units.
If we narrow down our criteria and look for meetings with a 25% increase, we will see a much higher number of matches involved which means better profits. With this increase we have 135 meetings, of which 39 are profitable, but the net profit is 35.14 units.
This is a pretty good result, but if we lower our criteria even more, we will get to the best. These are the matches where we have an increase of 20 percent. They combine the best odds, a good number of matches to bet on and of course a sufficient number of winning bets.
If, in the first six months of 2017, we have bet on football matches with an increase of at least 20% for some of the odds, we would have made a total of 403 bets. Of these, 117 would have been successful, which in turn would have earned us 48.91 units.
Overall, this is a pretty good result if we accept to look at betting on football matches as an investment. There are hardly to find many ways in which we can achieve 50 percent net profit in six months.
Perhaps you are wondering what happens if we go further and reduce the amount of the increasement. In a few words, losses begin to accumulate as the bookmaker’s margin starts to influence.
With a 15 percent increase, the losses are 16 units and with a 10 percent increase – 260 units.
This somehow shows that this betting strategy is statistically justified because we have a Gaussian function with the peak in the middle and the two ends around and below zero.
We hope this pure statistical survey of football matches could been useful to you and helps you make more profits from your betting. In fact, it can be summed up with just one sentence – Always bet on the better odds. It is very difficult to win by betting on football matches in every other way.