Betting on increased odds. The results! Part Two

In our previous two betting articles, namely About Betting Odds and The Results from out betting database, we briefly outlined one of ours betting strategies where we look after matches with increased odds. In the second post we also showed some of the results from this betting strategy. It is important to note that they were profitable, but also with a serious disadvantage that there were too less matches included which practically makes this strategy not worth to follow.

However, what happens, when we look for matches with smaller increase of the odds. This is what we are going to show you in this article.

First, we start with the results of matches with increase of 30% or more for one of the odds. For the first six months of 2017, such matches were played a total of 56 times, of which 17 (or 30 percent of the matches) ended with the victory for the team whose odds were increased. This results in a net profit of 12.86 units.

If we narrow down our criteria and look for meetings with a 25% increase, we will see a much higher number of matches involved which means better profits. With this increase we have 135 meetings, of which 39 are profitable, but the net profit is 35.14 units.

This is a pretty good result, but if we lower our criteria even more, we will get to the best. These are the matches where we have an increase of 20 percent. They combine the best odds, a good number of matches to bet on and of course a sufficient number of winning bets.

If, in the first six months of 2017, we have bet on football matches with an increase of at least 20% for some of the odds, we would have made a total of 403 bets. Of these, 117 would have been successful, which in turn would have earned us 48.91 units.

Overall, this is a pretty good result if we accept to look at betting on football matches as an investment. There are hardly to find many ways in which we can achieve 50 percent net profit in six months.

Perhaps you are wondering what happens if we go further and reduce the amount of the increasement. In a few words, losses begin to accumulate as the bookmaker’s margin starts to influence.

With a 15 percent increase, the losses are 16 units and with a 10 percent increase – 260 units.

This somehow shows that this betting strategy is statistically justified because we have a Gaussian function with the peak in the middle and the two ends around and below zero.

We hope this pure statistical survey of football matches could been useful to you and helps you make more profits from your betting. In fact, it can be summed up with just one sentence – Always bet on the better odds. It is very difficult to win by betting on football matches in every other way.

Betting on increased odds. The results!

In our previous post About betting with increased odds we presented with few words what we are aiming to do in this beta study. We also talked about the starting odds, offered by the bookmakers, as well as how the odds are affected by our bets. At the end of the publication, we promised that in a few days we will offer more specific data and results. Now is the time to do that.

As we said earlier, this betting survey is going to use a database that includes more than 50,000 football matches. We will have a deeper look on these matches, their odds and results in a try to find a winning strategy. Let’s start with specific data.

Let’s say we’re looking for matches where we have a 50 percent growth rate. In practice, that means that if we had a match with odds of 1.25, it must be increased at least to 3.3. It looks quite impressive, but it turns out that there are such matches. Only 5 out of 50,000, but it’s still something. Here they are.

Rheinbach vs TV Herkenrath – 1:5, in which the home team’s odds have risen from 1.17 to 12.00
Academia Chisinau vs Ungheni – 0:1, in which the home team’s odds have risen from 1.20 to 3.70
Dalian Boyang vs Yunnan Lijiang – 2:3 in which the odds for the guests jumped from 1.91 to 9.00 – this is the only winning match
Academia Chisinau vs Dinamo-Auto – 1:2, in which the home team’s odds have risen from 1.40 to 5.00
Glacis United vs Europa FC – 1:3, in which the home team’s odds have risen from 1.20 to 6.00.

Five bets and only one winner with 9 units of profit or 4 units of pure profit from our bank. Definitely it seems pointless to wait few months to make only five bets and even if you are profitable, it is only four units from your bank.

But let’s look at matches with a lesser increase of the odds, where the matches will be much more. With an increase of the final coefficient of 40 percent, the matches are 13 in total, including the above five. Of those, only 3 are winners, but even this brings us a net profit. Only 8.25 units from our bank though.

This is certainly better, but it is not enough for us to be able to create a winning betting strategy. At the very least, the efforts made to find such matches with such an increase will not worth the profit.

What is the situation with matches with smaller difference in the odds? That is what we will write about in our next post. Please give us few days to do that.

Betting on increased odds! Is it what we must do?

Statistics in sports betting is vital and everyone who knows a bit from gambling would tell you that. Of course, there are some pure talent people who know sports better than the others and can make profitable betting predictions. However, even they can not have the so needed information about all the teams and players, which in practice means they have to rely on statistics as well, when they make their tips for teams or players they don’t know that much.

In this and the next few posts you are going to read in this site about sports predictions and analysis, we are going to talk most about betting statistics. Here are a few words about what is this about.

Thanks to some time we spent in surveys, we were able to get a soccer database which includes all the starting and ending odds of bet365 for the first half of 2017. With more accurate words, we talk about a bit over than 50,000 football matches from around the world. The basis of the research we have done and what we are going to present here is the dependencies between the starting and ending odds for a given football match.

The idea is quite simple. It is assumed that most of the times, the initial odds, offered by the bookmaker is the betting prediction the bookmaker gives for that particular match. It is more than obviously, the bookmaker’s ability to produce accurate betting predictions is better than ours. This is also shown by the results when we look at a larger array of matches – a cumulative 1X2 bunch of matches always meets their odds. However, what changes the starting odds for a given match are our bets. When most of the bets go in one direction, the bookmaker (in this case bet365) increase the odds for the other. By doing that, the bettors are encouraged to go in the other direction until the odds are balanced once again.

In practice, that means if the initial betting prediction for a given match had a coefficient of 1.5, at some point we can bet on it at 1.8, which is a huge difference. However, this does not change the probability for the match to end in a certain way. This also gives us the opportunity for better profits and more precisely, the opportunity to overcome the bookmaker’s margin to the proposed odds.

In our next post, we would talk with specific data and results. With them, we would try to find a solution to the question – how can this be done in sports betting. How we can find and use the increased odds for football matches.